Turkey’s upcoming 7 June parliamentary elections are widely expected to result in a Justice and Development Party (AKP) victory. Based on opinion poll averages from the last three months, the anticipated party results are as follows:
· AKP: 42-45%
· Republican People’s Party (CHP): 24-28%
· Nationalist Movement Party (MHP): 13-18%
· HDP: 8.3 – 10.6%
One key unknown factor is how HDP votes will affect the election results. If the HDP fails to win 10% of the vote, under Turkish electoral rules it will not gain any seats in parliament, despite being the fourth-largest party. If this occurs, the net result would be a strengthened AKP.