Libya - 06

Libya: Political Alliances Shift Again: Opportunity for ISG?

Libya’s dense tangle of political and military alliances has shifted yet again as the new UN envoy Ghassan Salame continues his introductory meetings across the country, and various Western foreign ministers urge key Libyans to commit to the UN peace process or French President Emmanuel Macron’s initiative (launched in July).

Libya - 05

Libya: Down but Not Out: the Islamic State Group’s Residual Threat

The Islamic State Group (ISG) recently claimed its first attack in several months in Libya, with Libyan National Army (LNA) forces and civilians killed at a checkpoint in Jufra. ISG’s Amaq news agency claimed that 21 members of what it called Khalifa Haftar’s “militias” had been killed or injured in the raid. Notably, the incident

Libya - 02

Libya: Haftar Gains Ground as Opposition Alliances Weaken

The seizure by Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) of the highly sought Jufra airbase on 3 June marks yet another turn of the conflict to his advantage. It is unclear why anti-LNA forces, including the Benghazi Defense Brigades (BDB), retreated, but contacts in the area said that deals may have been struck with locals. Egyptian

Libya - 06

Libya: Haftar’s Intransigence: Prospects for Negotiations

Despite hopes by UN envoy Martin Kobler and others that renewed engagement by Russia could help push Khalifa Haftar to the negotiating table to hammer out a power-sharing deal, the Libyan National Army (LNA) leader is more intransigent than ever. As Horizon predicted, Haftar has turned his focus to the south, where he hopes to

Libya - 06

Libya: Eastern NOC Backs Away from Unification Deal

Elements in eastern Libya that have long sought to overturn the existing oil revenue system are again trying to assert themselves after Haftar’s LNA managed to recapture the Sidra and Ras Lanuf terminals. (Under the system, revenue is deposited in a foreign bank account and then transferred to the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) in

Libya - 02

Libya: Amazigh Opposition to Haftar: A New Blockade of Oil Facilities?

With Khalifa Haftar, the controversial head of the self-styled LNA, growing more assertive as internationals struggle to find a way to bring him into a power-sharing deal, Libya’s Amazigh ethnic minority has been making its feelings about Haftar clear. Many in Haftar’s inner circle and wider support base come from a staunch Arab nationalist perspective

Libya - 06

Libya: Anti-Haftar Forces Move on Oil Crescent

Forces opposed to Khalifa Haftar moved toward oil crescent terminals early in the morning on 7 December, ending months of speculation that they would attempt to recapture them. The facilities, had been under the control of controversial Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG) commander Ibrahim Jadhran until Haftar’s LNA and its allies seized the ports in September.

Libya - 04

Libya: Haftar’s Move on Zweitina

For the past weeks rumors have swirled in eastern Libya that forces aligned with controversial general Khalifa Haftar might make a move on one or more of the three eastern oil terminals controlled by Ibrahim Jathran’s section of the PFG. Armed groups loyal to Haftar’s so-called Libyan National Army (LNA) – a mix of uniformed

Libya - 06

Libya: The Coming Battle for Sirte

After months of various factions in eastern and western Libya claiming to Western powers that they have a plan for Sirte, it seems they will soon converge on the city that has been ISIL’s stronghold since early 2015. Sirte has since grown to become ISIL’s main hub in North Africa, providing a base for senior