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Libya: Despite Oil Production Rise, Macroeconomic Woes Remain

Despite Libya’s fragile oil production rise, the country still suffers from a host of economic challenges. The most recent World Bank assessment on Libya (published late last year) predicted that oil production would steadily increase. Nevertheless, it wrote that full capacity would not be reached before 2020, due to the time required to restore damaged

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Libya: Will the Muslim Brotherhood Remake Itself or Exit?

The Libyan chapter of the Muslim Brotherhood has begun to debate its future political strategy in the face of relentless pressure by Khalifa Haftar’s forces (backed by the UAE and Egypt). The Brotherhood has been diminished in eastern Libya, where Haftar and the UAE-Egyptian forces hold sway, while it retains a larger presence in Tripolitania.

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Libya: Political Alliances Shift Again: Opportunity for ISG?

Libya’s dense tangle of political and military alliances has shifted yet again as the new UN envoy Ghassan Salame continues his introductory meetings across the country, and various Western foreign ministers urge key Libyans to commit to the UN peace process or French President Emmanuel Macron’s initiative (launched in July).

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Libya: As Internationals Reach Out, Haftar Becomes More Intransigent

Just days after the much publicized 25 July meeting in Paris between Libya’s Serraj and Haftar, the latter began undermining much of the joint declaration negotiated by French President Emmanuel Macron. In a series of interviews with Arab and European media, Haftar insisted that some (unspecified) parts of the declaration “could not be implemented,” and

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Libya: Down but Not Out: the Islamic State Group’s Residual Threat

The Islamic State Group (ISG) recently claimed its first attack in several months in Libya, with Libyan National Army (LNA) forces and civilians killed at a checkpoint in Jufra. ISG’s Amaq news agency claimed that 21 members of what it called Khalifa Haftar’s “militias” had been killed or injured in the raid. Notably, the incident

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Libya: Change of the Guard at Eastern NOC

The soap opera of the breakaway NOC in eastern Libya featured another twist this week when its head was sacked. Naji Magrabi has been replaced by Faraj Saied al-Hassi, a former head of Arabian Gulf Oil Company (Agoco). The announcement was made by Abdullah al-Thinni, prime minister of the non-recognized government located in the

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Libya: Final Constitutional Draft Sows Seeds of Future Contention

The UN and various Western diplomats effusively praised the CDA this week for at last agreeing on the long-delayed final version of the Libyan constitution. The CDA members had been tasked with drafting this constitution after being elected in a national ballot in early 2014. After a long, difficult gestation – during which CDA members

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Libya: “Historic” Serraj-Haftar Meeting Viewed With Skepticism on the Ground

A blaze of publicity from Macron’s office accompanied the 25 July meeting between Serraj and Haftar at the Chateau De La Celle-Saint-Cloud outside Paris. However, while Macron spoke of “historic progress” in getting the two men in the same room for only their third meeting together (the previous one, several months ago in Abu Dhabi,

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Libya: Serraj Risks Further Discord with Unrealistic Calls for National Elections

In a televised statement on 15 July, beleaguered GNA head Serraj proposed what he called a new “roadmap” that would involve holding parliamentary and presidential elections next March and implementing a ceasefire in all cities across Libya. The ambitious plan had been in the pipeline for weeks. A number of Western diplomats tried in vain