Libya - 01

Libya: Will the Muslim Brotherhood Remake Itself or Exit?

The Libyan chapter of the Muslim Brotherhood has begun to debate its future political strategy in the face of relentless pressure by Khalifa Haftar’s forces (backed by the UAE and Egypt). The Brotherhood has been diminished in eastern Libya, where Haftar and the UAE-Egyptian forces hold sway, while it retains a larger presence in Tripolitania.

Libya - 04

Libya: As Internationals Reach Out, Haftar Becomes More Intransigent

Just days after the much publicized 25 July meeting in Paris between Libya’s Serraj and Haftar, the latter began undermining much of the joint declaration negotiated by French President Emmanuel Macron. In a series of interviews with Arab and European media, Haftar insisted that some (unspecified) parts of the declaration “could not be implemented,” and

Libya - 05

Libya: Down but Not Out: the Islamic State Group’s Residual Threat

The Islamic State Group (ISG) recently claimed its first attack in several months in Libya, with Libyan National Army (LNA) forces and civilians killed at a checkpoint in Jufra. ISG’s Amaq news agency claimed that 21 members of what it called Khalifa Haftar’s “militias” had been killed or injured in the raid. Notably, the incident

Libya - 06

Libya: Final Constitutional Draft Sows Seeds of Future Contention

The UN and various Western diplomats effusively praised the CDA this week for at last agreeing on the long-delayed final version of the Libyan constitution. The CDA members had been tasked with drafting this constitution after being elected in a national ballot in early 2014. After a long, difficult gestation – during which CDA members

Libya - 04

Libya: “Historic” Serraj-Haftar Meeting Viewed With Skepticism on the Ground

A blaze of publicity from Macron’s office accompanied the 25 July meeting between Serraj and Haftar at the Chateau De La Celle-Saint-Cloud outside Paris. However, while Macron spoke of “historic progress” in getting the two men in the same room for only their third meeting together (the previous one, several months ago in Abu Dhabi,

Libya - 05

Libya: Serraj Risks Further Discord with Unrealistic Calls for National Elections

In a televised statement on 15 July, beleaguered GNA head Serraj proposed what he called a new “roadmap” that would involve holding parliamentary and presidential elections next March and implementing a ceasefire in all cities across Libya. The ambitious plan had been in the pipeline for weeks. A number of Western diplomats tried in vain

Libya - 02

Libya: Amazigh Minority Rallies Against Haftar

Libya’s Amazigh minority has long been wary of Khalifa Haftar, seeing his strident Arab nationalism as a threat to their distinct ethnic identity. Amazigh armed groups joined the Libya Dawn alliance that formed in summer 2014 as a bulwark against Haftar in western Libya. Libya Dawn then routed the Zintani militias, Haftar’s allies at the

Libya - 01

Libya: New UN Resolution Unlikely to Reduce Fuel Smuggling

The UN Security Council recently expanded its 2014 resolution banning illegal crude exports from Libya to include refined petroleum products. The original resolution had authorized the inspection of suspicious vessels and urged member states to do whatever was necessary to prevent attempts at exporting crude. The new resolution states that those measures “shall apply with

Libya - 06

Libya: Oil Production and Security Situation: Considerations for IOCs

This week the UN Security Council is set to renew resolution 2146, originally passed in 2014, which imposed measures to prevent illicit crude oil exports from Libya. In March 2016 the Security Council voted to renew these terms through 31 July 2017, and extended measures requiring states to prevent ships from loading, transporting or discharging

Libya - 02

Libya: Haftar Gains Ground as Opposition Alliances Weaken

The seizure by Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) of the highly sought Jufra airbase on 3 June marks yet another turn of the conflict to his advantage. It is unclear why anti-LNA forces, including the Benghazi Defense Brigades (BDB), retreated, but contacts in the area said that deals may have been struck with locals. Egyptian