Libya - 06

Libya: Political Alliances Shift Again: Opportunity for ISG?

Libya’s dense tangle of political and military alliances has shifted yet again as the new UN envoy Ghassan Salame continues his introductory meetings across the country, and various Western foreign ministers urge key Libyans to commit to the UN peace process or French President Emmanuel Macron’s initiative (launched in July).

Libya - 04

Libya: As Internationals Reach Out, Haftar Becomes More Intransigent

Just days after the much publicized 25 July meeting in Paris between Libya’s Serraj and Haftar, the latter began undermining much of the joint declaration negotiated by French President Emmanuel Macron. In a series of interviews with Arab and European media, Haftar insisted that some (unspecified) parts of the declaration “could not be implemented,” and

Libya - 04

Libya: “Historic” Serraj-Haftar Meeting Viewed With Skepticism on the Ground

A blaze of publicity from Macron’s office accompanied the 25 July meeting between Serraj and Haftar at the Chateau De La Celle-Saint-Cloud outside Paris. However, while Macron spoke of “historic progress” in getting the two men in the same room for only their third meeting together (the previous one, several months ago in Abu Dhabi,

Libya - 05

Libya: Serraj Risks Further Discord with Unrealistic Calls for National Elections

In a televised statement on 15 July, beleaguered GNA head Serraj proposed what he called a new “roadmap” that would involve holding parliamentary and presidential elections next March and implementing a ceasefire in all cities across Libya. The ambitious plan had been in the pipeline for weeks. A number of Western diplomats tried in vain

Libya - 02

Libya: Amazigh Minority Rallies Against Haftar

Libya’s Amazigh minority has long been wary of Khalifa Haftar, seeing his strident Arab nationalism as a threat to their distinct ethnic identity. Amazigh armed groups joined the Libya Dawn alliance that formed in summer 2014 as a bulwark against Haftar in western Libya. Libya Dawn then routed the Zintani militias, Haftar’s allies at the

Libya - 02

Libya: Haftar Gains Ground as Opposition Alliances Weaken

The seizure by Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) of the highly sought Jufra airbase on 3 June marks yet another turn of the conflict to his advantage. It is unclear why anti-LNA forces, including the Benghazi Defense Brigades (BDB), retreated, but contacts in the area said that deals may have been struck with locals. Egyptian

Libya - 05

Libya: Haftar’s Route to Power: Armed Conflict or the Ballot Box?

Pro-Haftar media have tried to portray last week’s meeting in Abu Dhabi between GNA head Fayez Serraj and Khalifa Haftar, who has opposed the GNA until now, as a buzz-worthy breakthrough. They spun the meeting as having resulted in a power-sharing deal in which Haftar would serve as the head of the armed forces in

Libya - 06

Libya: Haftar’s Intransigence: Prospects for Negotiations

Despite hopes by UN envoy Martin Kobler and others that renewed engagement by Russia could help push Khalifa Haftar to the negotiating table to hammer out a power-sharing deal, the Libyan National Army (LNA) leader is more intransigent than ever. As Horizon predicted, Haftar has turned his focus to the south, where he hopes to

Libya - 04

Libya: Eastern Oil Ports Change Hands: A Blow to Haftar

The capture of Libya’s two key eastern oil ports at Ras Lanuf and Sidra near the end of last week by anti-Haftar forces served as reality check for those who may have bought into the pro-Haftar narrative in recent months. Since Haftar’s forces seized the oil crescent’s four terminals last September, using a strategy of

Libya - 05

Libya: Rosneft’s Deal with the NOC

On 21 February Rosneft and the Tripoli-based NOC signed a “cooperation framework agreement.” The preliminary agreement was signed in London by NOC chairman Mustafa Sanalla and Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin on the sidelines of the International Petroleum Week conference and publicly announced the following day.