Argentina Under the Peronist Administration: Outlook for Energy Investors

On 27 October 2019, the Peronist opposition candidate Alberto Fernandez won the presidency without need for a second round, decisively beating the incumbent, Mauricio Macri. Fernandez’s government took office on 10 December, ushering in a new era yet bringing in some familiar faces. This report focuses on key stakeholders in the new administration, its oil and gas policy and risks for foreign energy investors.
The key risk for investors in Argentina is the country’s macroeconomic viability, as concerns grow over its ability to repay its debt and get the economy going. Energy policy will depend on the success of yet another attempt to stabilize the main macroeconomic variables: inflation, forex and interest rates. All of these factors, meanwhile, largely rely on the Fernandez administration’s ability to renegotiate Argentina’s debt, both with the IMF and with private bondholders. Its first move in office, in late December 2019, was to get Congress to declare a broad state of economic emergency, which gives the administration special authority to make decisions almost without checks over the next six months.
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