Libya - 04

Libya: “Historic” Serraj-Haftar Meeting Viewed With Skepticism on the Ground

A blaze of publicity from Macron’s office accompanied the 25 July meeting between Serraj and Haftar at the Chateau De La Celle-Saint-Cloud outside Paris. However, while Macron spoke of “historic progress” in getting the two men in the same room for only their third meeting together (the previous one, several months ago in Abu Dhabi,

Mozambique - 01

Mozambique: Donor Freeze Remains as IMF Demands Full Transparency

After the executive summary of Kroll’s independent audit into Mozambique’s sovereign debt was published, the IMF sent a mission to the country from 10-19 July. The leader of the mission, Michel Lazare, stated that the Kroll report was missing “critical information” and that therefore a resumption of IMF financial support is out of the question

South Africa - 05

South Africa: Zwane’s Proposed Mining License Moratorium: Warning Sign for Investors

On 19 July, Minister of Mineral Resources Mosebenzi Zwane provided a notice of intention to implement a moratorium on processing new and renewed prospecting and mining rights. This represents a significant escalation in tensions with the mining sector, even though there are major doubts over the legality of Zwane’s proposal. The moratorium appears to be

Mexico - 01

Mexico: Zama-1 Raises Expectations and Political Stakes: Implications for Round 2.4

Zama-1, the first well explored with private capital in the Gulf of Mexico, has exceeded all expectations. In the medium term, Zama-1 will provide Mexico with profits fluctuating between 68.99% and 80%. According to SENER, Zama-1 will ultimately provide about $36bn to the national treasury. Meanwhile, there is great optimism among the consortium operating Zama-1.

Libya - 05

Libya: Serraj Risks Further Discord with Unrealistic Calls for National Elections

In a televised statement on 15 July, beleaguered GNA head Serraj proposed what he called a new “roadmap” that would involve holding parliamentary and presidential elections next March and implementing a ceasefire in all cities across Libya. The ambitious plan had been in the pipeline for weeks. A number of Western diplomats tried in vain

Mozambique - 04

Mozambique: Nyusi-Guebuza Rivalry Plays Out in Ministerial Battle Over Land

Soon after taking office in January 2015, President Nyusi established several new ministries, including MITADER – a key institutional actor for IOCs and other investors. It combines the former responsibilities of the Ministry for the Coordination of Environmental Affairs, the Ministry of Agriculture’s Department of Land and Cartography, the Ministry for State Administration’s Department of

Brazil - 01

Brazil: Lula Sentencing Deepens Political Polarization, but Oil Policy Appears Secure

Lula and his late wife Marisa Leticia were charged with receiving approximately $1.1mn in illegal financial benefits from a construction company, OAS, for the renovation of a beachfront apartment in the coastal town of Guaruja (in Sao Paulo state). In return, according to the prosecution, Lula politically favored OAS in contracts with Petrobras. After a

South Africa - 04

South Africa: Gigaba Announces New 14-Point Plan as Eskom’s Troubles Grow

On 13 July Minister of Finance Malusi Gigaba announced a new list of planned government interventions under the “Inclusive Growth Action Plan.” While the timeline for implementing various initiatives is welcome, the plan has been criticized for its failure to address the structural issues undermining long-term growth. Likewise, the plan did not address the lack

Kazakhstan - 02

Kazakhstan: Eurasia Project Inches Ahead While Other New Deals Are More Promising

Amid much fanfare, on 21 June the Kazakh government signed an agreement with KazMunayGas (KMG), Rosneft, CNPC, SOCAR, Eni and NEOS GeoSolutions to develop the Eurasia project. This will entail drilling an unprecedented 15km-deep well, Caspian-1, in the northern part of the Caspian Sea (75% of the project is in Kazakhstan and 25% is in