Libya - 02

Libya: Despite Oil Production Rise, Macroeconomic Woes Remain

Despite Libya’s fragile oil production rise, the country still suffers from a host of economic challenges. The most recent World Bank assessment on Libya (published late last year) predicted that oil production would steadily increase. Nevertheless, it wrote that full capacity would not be reached before 2020, due to the time required to restore damaged

Mozambique - 02

Mozambique: Renamo Legislation Deadline: Will Nyusi Follow Through?

Dhlakama recently issued a February 2018 deadline for the government to pass constitutional amendments and other legislation required to allow the direct election of provincial governors. He added that any proposals for these legal changes should be submitted to parliament by the end of this year, in order to stay on track for the February

Brazil - 01

Brazil: Congress Likely to Block Janot’s Parting Shot at Temer

Janot’s new criminal charges against Temer and a number of the latter’s closest aides derive from the previous findings linked to the JBS scandal. In these new charges, Temer is accused of obstruction of justice and organized crime. Janot claims that Temer led a criminal organization that sought to extract illegal financial concessions from a

Turkey - 01

Turkey: The Energy Politics of Ankara’s Idlib Deployment

On 16 September, Ankara began mobilizing troops in Hatay province for deployment in the adjacent Syrian province of Idlib, bolstering Turkish and Free Syrian Army (FSA) positions there. As per the 15 September Astana agreement, Turkey will deploy around 25,000 troops to enforce the de-escalation zone in Idlib province, holding strategic positions in Taftanaz, Maraat

Brazil - 02

Brazil: TAG Divestment Proposal Likely to Prevail Over Injunctions

Last week, Brazil’s Petrobras announced that it has begun a process to sell off 90% of TAG (Transportadora Associada de Gas). The company, operated by Transpetro (a Petrobras subsidiary), owns the largest network of gas pipelines in the country. Covering the northern, northeastern and southeastern regions, it accounts for roughly 47% of Brazil’s gas infrastructure.

Mozambique - 03

Mozambique: Parliament Attempts to Thwart Constitutional Council on EMATUM Debt

Mozambique’s sovereign debt saga recently took another turn, showing the political machinations going on behind the scenes in the run-up to the Frelimo congress at the end of the month. On 5 September, parliamentary spokesman Mateus Kathupa (see our Personality of the Week) stated that the Constitutional Council does not have the remit to declare

Argentina - 03

Argentina: Dam Approvals Highlight Improving Relationship with China

Argentina’s government recently approved the construction of two hydroelectric dams in Patagonia, specifically in the southern province of Santa Cruz. China Gezhouba Group Co., Ltd. (a majority shareholder) and local company Electroingenieria SA will lead the construction. The deal over the dams – one named after former President Nestor Kirchner (2003-2007); the other named after

Yemen-4

Yemen: UAE-led Security Offensive in Shabwah: Stalemate Against AQAP?

In early August, UAE-backed local forces launched a large-scale offensive aimed at clearing AQAP from urban areas, re-establishing security along the major highways through Shabwah and securing pipelines and oil and gas infrastructure in the north of the governorate. The offensive was preceded by several months of deteriorating security across Abyan and adjacent areas.

South Africa - 02

South Africa: PetroSA and Rosgeo Agreement to Attract Further Scrutiny

South Africa’s PetroSA announced on 4 September that it had signed an agreement with Russia’s Rosgeo to develop offshore blocks 9 and 11A. The announcement suggested that the deal will be worth around $400mn. However, the statement from PetroSA and Rosgeo did not address the deal’s terms and timeframe. As a result, although the agreement

Libya - 01

Libya: Will the Muslim Brotherhood Remake Itself or Exit?

The Libyan chapter of the Muslim Brotherhood has begun to debate its future political strategy in the face of relentless pressure by Khalifa Haftar’s forces (backed by the UAE and Egypt). The Brotherhood has been diminished in eastern Libya, where Haftar and the UAE-Egyptian forces hold sway, while it retains a larger presence in Tripolitania.