Libya - 05

Libya: Serraj Risks Further Discord with Unrealistic Calls for National Elections

In a televised statement on 15 July, beleaguered GNA head Serraj proposed what he called a new “roadmap” that would involve holding parliamentary and presidential elections next March and implementing a ceasefire in all cities across Libya. The ambitious plan had been in the pipeline for weeks. A number of Western diplomats tried in vain

Mozambique - 04

Mozambique: Nyusi-Guebuza Rivalry Plays Out in Ministerial Battle Over Land

Soon after taking office in January 2015, President Nyusi established several new ministries, including MITADER – a key institutional actor for IOCs and other investors. It combines the former responsibilities of the Ministry for the Coordination of Environmental Affairs, the Ministry of Agriculture’s Department of Land and Cartography, the Ministry for State Administration’s Department of

Brazil - 01

Brazil: Lula Sentencing Deepens Political Polarization, but Oil Policy Appears Secure

Lula and his late wife Marisa Leticia were charged with receiving approximately $1.1mn in illegal financial benefits from a construction company, OAS, for the renovation of a beachfront apartment in the coastal town of Guaruja (in Sao Paulo state). In return, according to the prosecution, Lula politically favored OAS in contracts with Petrobras. After a

South Africa - 04

South Africa: Gigaba Announces New 14-Point Plan as Eskom’s Troubles Grow

On 13 July Minister of Finance Malusi Gigaba announced a new list of planned government interventions under the “Inclusive Growth Action Plan.” While the timeline for implementing various initiatives is welcome, the plan has been criticized for its failure to address the structural issues undermining long-term growth. Likewise, the plan did not address the lack

Kazakhstan - 02

Kazakhstan: Eurasia Project Inches Ahead While Other New Deals Are More Promising

Amid much fanfare, on 21 June the Kazakh government signed an agreement with KazMunayGas (KMG), Rosneft, CNPC, SOCAR, Eni and NEOS GeoSolutions to develop the Eurasia project. This will entail drilling an unprecedented 15km-deep well, Caspian-1, in the northern part of the Caspian Sea (75% of the project is in Kazakhstan and 25% is in

Mexico - 02

Mexico: Pemex Clears Hurdles as Energy Reforms Gain Further Support

Pemex is attempting to shake off past corruption allegations and boost its investment appeal. At the Oil and Gas Innovation Forum 2017 (organized by Siemens, Bloomberg and El Financiero) on 6 July in Mexico City, CEO Jose Antonio Gonzalez Anaya emphasized that Pemex had been a victim of Odebrecht’s. He also reiterated that a new


Mozambique: Long-Shot Scenario: Nyusi Fails in September, with Dire Consequences

Mozambique’s political and economic trajectory would dramatically change if Nyusi is not chosen as Frelimo’s presidential candidate for the 2019 general elections. Nyusi’s rejection would be a scathing judgement on his term in office, marking an indisputable fall from grace and abandonment by the majority of the party.

Libya - 02

Libya: Amazigh Minority Rallies Against Haftar

Libya’s Amazigh minority has long been wary of Khalifa Haftar, seeing his strident Arab nationalism as a threat to their distinct ethnic identity. Amazigh armed groups joined the Libya Dawn alliance that formed in summer 2014 as a bulwark against Haftar in western Libya. Libya Dawn then routed the Zintani militias, Haftar’s allies at the

Argentina - 01

Argentina: Playing the Long Game: Macri’s Reset with Chile

In addition to resetting the economy and removing Argentina’s standing as an international pariah, Macri took office intent upon rebuilding relations with other South American countries. This was perhaps most necessary with Chile, which still feels the sting from Argentina’s past severance of natural gas supplies. The visit to Chile at the end of June

South Africa - 01

South Africa: Slow Signs of Exploration Activity in 2017

Despite political and regulatory uncertainty, PASA has continued to see some muted exploration interest in 2017, mostly in onshore blocks. Onshore activity continues to experience greater opposition from communities and other economic sectors, particularly agriculture. Additionally, environmental concerns and the potential impact on the fishing sector have raised opposition toward offshore exploration, including seismic surveys.