Indonesia - 05

Indonesia: Novanto Kicks off 2019 Elections

In an surprise move, newly elected Golkar chairman Setya Novanto has already unofficially endorsed Jokowi in the 2019 presidential elections. As Horizon recently reported, the Golkar party’s elections have brought it closer to the government (please see our 18 May Latest Analysis).While its timing is unexpected, we believe that Novanto’s tacit endorsement is a demonstration

Kazakhstan - 04

Kazakhstan: Bozumbayev’s Upbeat Statements: Fact and Fiction

On 25 May Minister of Energy Kanat Bozumbayev optimistically suggested that Tengizchevroil (TCO) is finalizing an expansion project for the Tengiz field that will cost an estimated $36-37bn and lift output by 11mn tons to 36mn tons/year by 2021. The minister stated that IOCs led by Chevron are slated to finalize the spending plan in

Brazil - 03

Brazil: Juca’s Resignation: Corruption Allegations against the Temer Administration

On 23 May the newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo published audio clips from wiretapped phone conversations between Romero Juca, one of provisional President Michel Temer’s most powerful aides, and former chairman of state-owned gas company Transpetro, Sergio Machado. In their conversations, which took place in early May, shortly before Dilma Rousseff stepped down to await

Libya - 05

Libya: Rival Central Bank Moves to Circulate New Banknotes

Despite efforts by the UN and Western powers to bolster the nascent GNA and put an end to Libya’s rival governments, parliaments, armies, central banks and National Oil Corporations, the anti-GNA faction in eastern Libya is trying to pull one of its most audacious stunts yet – introducing rival banknotes into an already chaotic economy.

Mozambique - 02

Mozambique: The Looming Threat of Default

On 23 May Fitch Ratings downgraded Mozambique’s sovereign rating from CCC to CC, indicating a shift from “substantial” to “very high” levels of credit risk, with a default probable. Fitch’s downgrade followed Minister for Finance and Economy Adriano Maleiane’s admission before the parliamentary Planning and Budget Commission on 18 May that Mozambique Asset Management (MAM)

Russia - 06

Russia: Power of Siberia: Deceleration Ahead of a Delay

On 19 May Gazprom Deputy CEO Vitaliy Markelov reported that the monopoly will decelerate construction on the Power of Siberia pipeline: instead of 800km, only 400km will be laid this year. So far, Gazprom has confirmed that 115km of the 4,500-km pipeline have been completed. In the meantime, Minister of Energy Alexander Novak recently stated

Libya - 02

Libya: Team of Rivals? Parallel NOCs Agree on Hariga Exports

One of the priorities of the UN-backed Presidency Council is to increase Libyan oil production, and the key to this is putting an end to the rivalry between the NOC headquarters in Tripoli and the parallel NOC in eastern Libya, which was established in late 2014 by then Prime Minister Abdullah al-Thinni. The eastern NOC

Turkey - 01

Turkey: The PKK’s Shoot-Down of a Turkish Helicopter: Implications for KRG Policy

On 13 May a Turkish military helicopter crashed in the rural Cukurca region of Hakkari province. While a subsequent Turkish General Staff press note stated that the helicopter had crashed due to “technical failure,” the next day, a PKK social media account published the video of helicopter’s downing via a shoulder-launched MAN-Portable Air-Defense System (MANPADS).

Brazil 6

Brazil: Temer’s New Energy Minister: A Symbolic Figure rather Than a Decision-Maker

Following Dilma Rousseff’s stepping down for trial last week, provisional President Michel Temer has named Fernando Bezerra Coelho Filho, a congressman from the PSB, as the new minister of energy and mines. Coelho Filho, who is only 32, is the son of congressman Fernando Bezerra Coelho, an influential figure within the PSB and an ally

Indonesia - 01

Indonesia: Golkar’s New President: Better Coordination with the Government?

On 17 May, after an overnight deliberation, the Golkar party’s extraordinary congress (Munaslub) chose its new president and therefore policy objectives. Setya Novanto, the former speaker of the DPR, managed to edge out his closest rival, Ade Komaruddin, to become the party’s chairman until 2019. Novanto received 277 votes compared to Komaruddin’s 173 and 48