Kazakhstan - 04

Kazakhstan: Astana Reinstates Fuel Export and Import Bans

On 30 July the Kazakh government banned exports of several oil products, including gasoline, diesel and kerosene, outside of the EEU, enforcing a Ministry of Energy order released last month but published ten days ago. The measure seeks to prevent a critical supply deficit during the harvest season as well as price hikes in the

Brazil 6

Brazil: Petrobras Board Approves IPO Plans for Main Distribution Subsidiary

On 24 July the Petrobras board of directors approved a tentative timeframe for the IPO of the company’s main distribution subsidiary, BR Distribuidora. Though precise details of the plans were not released, Brazilian media reporting on the meeting noted that the company intends to launch the IPO before the end of this year. We believe

Turkey - 02

Turkey: Ankara’s Strikes against ISIL and the PKK: Likely Trajectories

On 24 July Turkish jets bombarded PKK positions across the mountain ranges of northern Iraq, including in the areas of Mount Qandil, Mount Halgurd, Sinat, Meyina, Haftanin, Zap, Avasin and Gora. The strikes came one day after Ankara announced that it had reached an agreement with Washington to intensify Turkish military operations against ISIL. In

Mozambique - 04

Mozambique: Fifth Oil and Gas Licensing Round: Role of Local Partners

After being postponed twice since December of last year, the bid submission deadline for Mozambique’s fifth oil and gas licensing round is finally set to close on 30 July at noon local time in Maputo. The contract areas under offer in this fifth round are Rovuma in northern Mozambique, Angoche and Zambezi in the center

Iraq - 02

Iraq: All Change in US Policy on Kurdistan? Views from Washington and Erbil

Since 21 June the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has withheld its crude oil from the State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) of Iraq and once again moved toward oil export-led economic independence. More recently, the KRG has even begun bunkering federally produced Kirkuk crude at Ceyhan with Turkish acquiescence, sending some of it to Turkish refiners

Brazil - 04

Brazil: Labor Union Strike Highlights Resistance to Petrobras Divestment Plans

The FUP and FNP launched a nationwide, one-day strike against Petrobras’ ongoing divestment plans on 24 July, disrupting operations of at least 22 platforms. Altogether 17 different oil sector labor unions and a significant portion of Petrobras employees comprise the two organizations. According to the company’s most recent business plan released on 29 June, it

Russia - 05

Russia: Gazprom’s Setbacks and Rosneft’s Attacks Will Not Threaten Miller

Gazprom has experienced a string of high-profile setbacks in recent weeks. The monopoly’s negotiations with China and Turkey over two major pipelines, Altai and Turkish Stream, have hit roadblocks. Gazprom’s output declined 13% in the first half of 2015 to reach 205 bcm, with its revenues dropping in line with falling production and prices. In

Kazakhstan - 03

Kazakhstan: Astana Sticks to Gradual Devaluation and Showcase Projects

On 15 July National Bank of Kazakhstan Governor Kairat Kelimbetov announced that the central bank would widen the tenge’s trading band against the US dollar by raising the upper limit to 198 tenge/dollar and maintaining the lower limit at 170 tenge/dollar. In our view, this move should be seen as a gradual devaluation, since according


Mozambique: Pressure on Nyusi Increases as Renamo Escalates Violence

Tensions between Renamo and government forces in central Tete province have continued to escalate over the past month and erode the fragile peace between the two sides, with violent clashes breaking out in the province on 14 and 23 June and then on 3 and 4 July. Just last week, local media reported that up

South Africa - 02

South Africa: Continued MPRDA Impasse Raises Prospects of Bill’s Rejection

South Africa’s parliament returned from its recess for the third term on 21 July, although National Assembly committees and plenaries will not be underway until 4 August. This recess has meant that there has been no recent progress on processing the MPRDA Amendment Bill, which currently appears to be stuck in limbo with the Joint